Each 1 July, the government announces an MBS indexation factor that lifts Medicare rebates by a set percentage. Here's how that figure has compared, year by year, to official inflation (CPI) since 2021 — plus what happened during the 2013–2020 rebate freeze.
The MBS indexation factor effective each 1 July, next to the official CPI (All Groups) annual rate for the March quarter/month of the same year.
| Year (1 Jul) | MBS indexation | CPI annual rate | Gap (CPI minus indexation) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.2 pts |
| 2022 | 1.6% | 5.1% | 3.5 pts |
| 2023 | 3.6% | 7.0% | 3.4 pts |
| 2024 | 3.5% | 3.6% | 0.1 pts |
| 2025 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0 pts |
| 2026 | 2.6% | 4.6% | 2.0 pts |
Indexation has sometimes tracked CPI closely (2024, 2025) and sometimes fallen well behind it — most sharply in 2022 and 2023, when inflation spiked. In every one of these six years, CPI matched or exceeded the indexation factor; it was never the other way around. Compounded, MBS indexation rose about 15.5% over 2021–2026 while CPI rose about 26.2% — a cumulative real-terms gap of roughly 11 percentage points.
Note: the government has not published the exact formula behind the indexation percentage — the 2025 legislative instrument's explanatory statement sets the rate (2.4% that year) but does not state what index, formula or reference period produced it. These two series are shown side by side for comparison, not as cause and effect.
The Australian Medical Association has separately calculated a 30-year comparison: an average MBS indexation rate of about 1.1% a year, against CPI inflation of about 2.4% a year and average weekly earnings growth of about 3.5% a year over the same period. On that basis, the AMA estimates GPs have missed out on roughly $8.6 billion over the lifetime of the standard (Level B) consultation item alone, had it been indexed to wages and inflation instead. These are the AMA's own calculations and assumptions, not an ABS or Department of Health figure — we haven't been able to independently verify the underlying methodology, so treat it as the medical profession's advocacy position rather than official statistics.
Before 2021, indexation wasn't just low — for much of this period it was paused entirely by successive Budget decisions. Timeline from the Department of Health's own answer to a Senate Estimates question on notice:
The Department's answer gives dates and pause periods, not percentages, so we haven't put a specific indexation figure on these freeze years above — doing so would mean guessing at numbers the primary source doesn't state.